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This paper aims to analyze the potential variables explaining the compliance value added tax (VAT) gap, which basically represents an estimate of the unpaid VAT in the economy. A major component of compliance VAT Gap is represented by tax fraud; there exist other causes too, like insolvencies, bankruptcies, optimizations practices and maladministration. The objective of our paper is to revisit the main determinants of the VAT compliance gap for the European Union (EU)-27 member states. Using econometric modeling, our study identifies the relationship between the VAT gap and various determinants of it.

Our work focuses on the shadow economy, final consumption, VAT revenues, standard VAT rates, differences between the standard and reduced rates, economic prosperity, press freedom, political stability and others, as determinants of European VAT compliance gaps, for the 2005–2020 time interval. The methods include panel data analysis through simple and multiple regression modeling, the combinatorial approach, fixed and random effects.

Our study validates the direct impact of shadow economy and the indirect impact of VAT revenues, economic prosperity and press freedom, upon VAT compliance gaps. Upon subsampling of EU member states within old and new ones, our results estimate a larger positive impact of shadow economy upon old member states, compared to new ones.

The policy implications include leverage effects of governments acting upon a reduction in shadow economy phenomena and boosts of economic development, political stability and press freedom, in order to attain the contraction of compliance VAT gaps.

Our paper sheds light in a poorly explored scientific area, that of the determinants of VAT gap, especially in relationship with financial and economic crime phenomena.